So are we in recession or out of recession? Is the depression still looming or is it all coming up roses?

You would be forgiven for holding either view as at present the newspapers seem to carry a story with quotes from respected industry experts and commentators along with supporting evidence for either the recovery or the recession on alternate days.

On Tuesday we are given the front page headline in the Daily Telegraph, “Double dip slump fears as US credit shrinks at Great Depression rate”. In another quality broadsheet on the same day they rehashed a story from a couple of Sunday’s ago about the company insolvencies that are about to happen.

However, this is being played out on the backdrop of comments and findings of the International Monetary Fund that hinted that we were at the “Start of the Recovery” (they went on in their statement to align more than enough caveats to make the original statement worthless). Then today we read that the “Head of the Fed”, Ben Bernanke has announced that, “the recession is very likely over”. A statement that leaves enough “wriggle room” should this not be the case.

Looking at all of the available information and the various statements from all the leading people in the world of economics, finance and government my conclusion is this. Anyone that tells you they know the recession is over or not is talking out of their ear (I use the word ear for the want of a better word).

The fact of the matter is that the number of variables involved in this unprecedented situation is overwhelming. The number of scenarios involved in modelling this crisis would be hard to comprehend. The current economic situation will not be cured by house prices in Kent going up a few bob for a couple of months in a row.

My conclusion is that until we get 2009 over with and head in to the first quarter of 2010 we won’t know where we are in global financial terms. By the end of the first quarter the great and the good of the economic, financial and political worlds will be far better placed to play the experts again. Between now and then we will just have to put up with inane banter and posturing of those that let things get into this state.