Are we coming out of recession or going into a “double dip”?

Mervyn King the Governor of the Bank of England announced yesterday he is now starting to see evidence that we are at the beginning of the recovery. As always he also sounded a cautionary warning that the recovery was still fragile.

So it is a good job that they are pressing on with their fiscal stimulus or quantitative easing.

However in the background there are a number of articles warning that Britain is heading for a “double dip” i.e. a noticeable recovery and then a return to previous lows. The predictions of the shape of the recovery are growing ever wilder, we have had the “W” and the “Slipper” but somebody has coined a new one on me, the “Bath Shaped” recovery. All of which are completely lost on me and I suspect the wider public.

So are we or are we not now safe? Are we in or out of recession? Has the recovery started or is it another false dawn? None of this does anything to inspire the consumer’s confidence.

I am with Merv, we are starting to move out of recession, a number of factors have stabilised in the last month, unemployment appears to have peaked, mortgage lending has improved and the lower pound is making our goods and services more attractive in overseas markets that have already come out of recession.

The reasons for the “Double Dip” theory are based around three things:

1. Large companies seeking funds from the bond market
2. The return of securitisation
3. Underlying concern about the recovery in America

As long as the recovery is gradual and the economy is managed through this tricky period properly, which I believe it is, we should not face a double dip.

But as we keep repeating at www.thebestbestbuys.com until the end of the first quarter in 2010 we will not know for sure.